A general presentation
This report is the Second National Communication of Egypt submitted to the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
The main objective of Egypt’s National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction is to increase the flexibility of the Egyptian community when dealing with the risks and disasters that might be caused by climate change and its impact on different sectors and activities. It also aims at strengthening the capacity to absorb and reduce the risks and disasters to be caused by such changes.
In essence, the strategy adopts accommodation and protection as the two basic means of defence, taking into consideration systematic retreat based upon predefined plans, in case the coastal zones are exposed to cyclones, tsunamis or any other extreme event. The global concepts agreed upon in the Copenhagen Accord (2010) refer to a minimum temperature increase of no more than two degrees Celsius as well as two sea level rise scenarios of 0.5 meters and 1 meter until the end of the 21st century.
(Conclusion)
1. Egypt scarce natural resources are highly vulnerable to climate change and anticipatory adaptation measures are necessary. Experience has already been gained on some aspects.
2. Some general adaptation measures have already been incorporated in Alexandria plans for the year 2050. These include : land use changes, drip irrigation, wastewater treatment and re-use, upgrading awareness and law enforcement.
3. Priorities of specific adaptation measures have been carried out based on preset criteria to identify appropriate options for a specific location. Proper modeling, continuous monitoring and predictability, are necessary.
4. Strategic environmental assessments (SEA), with a component on climate change
adaptation, must be adopted and enforced by a law, at least for large scale national
projects.
5. Capacity building on Regional Circulation Models (RCM) and adaptation techniques are highly needed
6. Socioeconomic considerations is the controlling agent of land cover/ land use adaptation and should be given due consideration. The role of specialized NGO cannot be overlooked.
Abstract
This study, conducted in collaboration with the Egyptian government, used estimates of change in water supplies, coastal inundation, and crop yields previously published by Egyptian researchers to estimate the potential impacts of climate change on Egypt’s agriculture economy in 2030 and 2060. In addition, the value of property that could be damaged due to sea level rise (SLR), the increase in the number of deaths and valuation of such losses from climate changeinduced decreases in air quality and increases in heat stress, and losses to tourism from increased heat and loss of coral reefs were estimated. Agricultural production is estimated to decrease by 8 to 47% by 2060, with reductions in agriculture-related employment of up to 39%, although in one scenario employment increases by 3% and food prices increase by 16 to 68%. Welfare losses in agriculture in 2060 are estimated to range from 40 to 234 billion Egyptian pounds (EGP). The value of property in the Nile River Delta threatened by SLR could be 7 to 16 billion EGP.
Increased particulate matter concentrations and heat stress could result in approximately 2,000 to 5,000 more deaths per year, with an equivalent loss of 20 to 48 billion EGP per year. Higher temperatures could reduce annual tourist revenues by 90 to 110 billion EGP. The study, which is not comprehensive, estimates that hundreds of billions of Egyptian pounds, about 2 to 6% of future gross domestic product, could be lost from effects on water resources, agriculture, coastal resources, and tourism ; thousands could die from air pollution and heat stress ; and millions could lose jobs in agriculture as the result of climate change. Given the risks that climate change poses for Egypt, it is very important that adaptation risks that are already apparent and risks that will most likely become greater under climate change be promptly addressed. The key sectors for adaptation include water resources, agriculture, tourism, health, and coastal resources. Egypt should also develop a national adaptation plan.
Concerns Egypt And Lebanon
Summary (from document)
Climate observations
There have been widespread warming trends over Egypt since 1960 with greater warming in summer than winter.
Between 1960 and 2003, there has been an increase in the frequency of warm nights and a decrease in the frequency of cool nights.
There has been a general increase in summer temperatures averaged over the country as a result of human influence on climate, making the occurrence of warm summer temperatures more frequent and cold summer temperatures less frequent.
Climate change projections
For the A1B emissions scenario the CMIP3 ensemble, projected temperature
increases over Egypt are around 3-3.5°C with a consistently good agreement between the models over the Middle East region in general.
Egypt is projected to experience mainly decreases in precipitation, in common with the wider Mediterranean and majority of the Middle East. Decreases of over 20% are projected in the west of the country, with strong ensemble agreement. Smaller changes are projected towards the southeast.
Climate change impact projections Crop yields
Over 90% of crop production in Egypt is fed by irrigation. An important uncertainty in projections of crop yield is therefore the evolution of future water availability with climate change in Egypt.
Global- and regional-scale studies generally project yield deficits for wheat, rice and maize, three of Egypt’s major crops, with climate change. Whether crops are rain-fed or irrigated has an important bearing on the results, and the balance between detrimental ozone effects and CO2 fertilisation may determine whether losses or gains are realised under climate change
National-scale studies agree that crop yields in Egypt could decline with climate change, and that adaptation and management methods could potentially reduce the magnitude of any losses.
Food security
Egypt is currently a country of extremely low undernourishment. Global-scale studies included here generally project that Egypt could experience increasing pressures on food security as a result of climate change.
However, recent work by the AVOID programme demonstrates that adaptive
measures could be crucial towards maintaining food security in Egypt under climate change.
Water stress and drought
The majority of national-scale and global-scale studies that have considered the effects of climate change on river discharge suggest that water stress could increase with climate change in Egypt.
Recent simulations by the AVOID programme demonstrate high uncertainty in
estimating the magnitude of increased water stress under climate change for Egypt. However most projections do not show much of the population experiencing a decrease in water stress with climate change.
National-scale studies indicate that the discharge of the Nile could decline
substantially in the future and that the population presents a high vulnerability to water stress with climate change, although precise estimates remain uncertain.
Pluvial flooding and rainfall
The IPCC AR4 found consistency across GCMs that mean precipitation could
decrease with climate change for Egypt, but that wet extremes could increase.
Fluvial flooding
There the magnitude and sign of future changes in flood season discharge in the Nile River remain uncertain.
Simulations by the AVOID programme found that a large majority of models show a tendency towards decreasing flood risk with climate change in the early 21st century. Later in the century a majority of the models still agree on a decrease compared to the present-day average annual flood risk, but, especially in the A1B scenario, a small number of models do show large increases in flood risk by this time.
Coastal regions
Several studies conclude that Egypt is highly vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR).
In one study that considered the impact of a 1m SLR for 84 developing countries, Egypt was ranked the 2nd highest with respect to the coastal population affected, 3rd highest for coastal GDP affected and 5th highest for proportion of urban areas affected.
Around 15% (2.7 million people) of Egypt’s coastal population could be affected by a 10% intensification of the current 1-in-100-year storm surge combined with a 1m SLR.
MODERATION OF THE NATIONAL WORKSHOP IN EGYPT
Deliverable on activity 1.1.1.1 :
Identify existing CV&C monitoring program and available data in each participating country, as well as options for data sharing in
view of developing a multicounty Information sharing
portal.
Project title
“Integration of climatic variability and change into national strategies to implement the ICZM protocol in the Mediterranean”
Facilitated and reported on by Philippe Coste, Plan Bleu’s consultant.
Contributor : Antoine Lafitte, ICZM programme officer, Plan Bleu.
Hosted by Egypt, Heliopolis, 23 & 24 October 2013
Abeer Elshater, 2012, New Urbanism Principles versus Urban Design Dimensions towards Behavior Performance Efficiency in Egyptian Neighbourhood Unit. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 68 (2012) 826 – 843
Abstract- This paper introduces a method to apply the principles of New Urbanism on an Egyptian neighborhood unit. It extends to their relationship with the common dimensions of urban design. It proposes four objectives : a) Interpret the new concepts of New Urbanism, b) Cite principles of Urbanism and trends emanating from it, c) Discover the structure of the philosophical concept of urbanization and d) Design a matrix inventories the compatibility of the principles of New Urbanism and urban design dimensions. Finally, the matrix tests the combination of the principles and the dimensions in a traditional Egyptian urban fabric, Basilica Church Plaza.
Kenneth M. Strzepek, David N. Yates, Dia El Din El Quosy, 1996, Vulnerability assessment of water resources in Egypt to climatic change in the Nile Basin. Climate Research, 6 : 89-95
Abstract- The impacts of global climate change on the water resources of the Nile River Basin were evaluated using simulation models. Four climate change scenarios were evaluated (baseline, GISS, GFDL, and UKMO). The complete impact of climatic changes in the Nile cannot be fully predicted with confidence, as some models forecast increased flows, while others project significant decreases. Hourever, it was observed that the Nile River flow is extremely sensitive to ambient temperature and precipitatlon changes, and it is possible that the effects of climatic fluctuations would be severe. Several water management options were identified to help adapt Nlle River management to a changing global climate.
Usama Nassar, 2013, Principles of Green Urbanism : the Absent Value in Cairo, Egypt. International Journal of Social Science and Humanity, Vol. 3, No. 4, July 2013. DOI : 10.7763/IJSSH.2013.V3.258
Abstract—Cairo is considered one of the main growing cities in the Arab world today. Conventional planning has failed to direct this growth towards creating sustainable urban environments for all, and has instead encouraged lopsided development that caters only to the affluent sections. This trend has affected public urban spaces as well, which are now centered on consumption and dependant on heavy investment in real estate and technology. This has a considerable impact on the spectrum of socio-economic groups that are able to access and use them. Taking as a starting point the principles and concept of Green Urbanism, the paper questions the prevalent situation, and focuses on three aspects that have been ignored in recent approaches in recent development plans. The first (Green Urbanism) is explored as a main principles to revitalize the second (Public Spaces), in order to achieve the third (Sustainable Model) as a long term goal. This is done using analysis and design in parallel, and results in a proposal for a new design process and through it, scale specific design solutions for Cairo public spaces that will create a high quality of life for the people of the heavily populated, demographically diverse and socio-economically fragmented city.
Executive Summary (part) :
This report presents the integrated case study for Egypt carried out under an OECD project on Development and Climate Change. The report is structured around a three-tiered framework. First, recent climate trends and climate change scenarios for Egypt are assessed and key sectoral impacts are identified and ranked along multiple indicators to establish priorities for adaptation. Second, donor portfolios are analyzed to examine the proportion of development assistance activities affected by climate risks. A desk analysis of donor strategies and project documents as well as national plans is conducted to assess the degree of attention to climate change concerns in development planning and assistance. Third, an in-depth analysis is conducted for coastal zones as well as water resource management on the Nile.
Preparing for Climate Change in the Red Sea
Recognising early impacts through perceptions of dive tourists and dive operators in Egypt.
N.A. Marshall, P.A. Marshall, A. Abdulla, A. Rouphael, and A. Ali
Executive Summary
Tourism generates important economic activity globally and is a major source of foreign exchange income in many countries. Yet, climate change has the potential to permanently alter the attraction and value of many tourism destinations and substantially impact the income streams and social benefits derived from tourism. These impacts can be minimised if tourism operators, sectors and tourism dependent communities understand their vulnerability to climate change, and take steps to adapt to predicted changes. Some of the more immediate and manageable changes are likely to result from changes in awareness and attitudes among tourists, and these factors are major drivers of destination and activity choice. Here we test for early indications of these potential climate change impacts among Red Sea tourists and tourism operators as a first step to developing climate adaptation strategies for this sector.
Our aims were to : (i) identify whether climate change awareness and attitudes were currently evident in dive tourists visiting the Red Sea region, (ii) assess industry awareness of client attitudes, and (iii) evaluate the implications of these results for development of climate adaptation strategies for the Red Sea tourism industry in Egypt.
We interviewed 150 dive tourists in the Egyptian Red Sea for their awareness and attitudes towards climate change and coral reef condition, and 35 dive operators for their opinion of tourist attitudes and awareness. Our data suggest that changes in awareness and attitudes are already apparent in the Egyptian Red Sea tourism sector. Dive tourists are strongly aware of environmental issues and climate change, and place significant importance on environmental quality and the sustainability profile of tourism operators in making holiday decisions. In contrast, dive operators generally ascribe only a moderate level of environmental awareness to their clients and believe them to be relatively insensitive to ecosystem health and the sustainability profile of operators. This ‘perception gap’ between clients and operators increases the risk that dive operators in the Egyptian Red Sea will experience early impacts of climate change. This study reveals the nature of initial awareness and attitudinal change among tourists visiting the Red Sea, and lays the foundations for early adaptation by the Red Sea tourism industry.
