Summary (from document)
There have been widespread warming trends over Egypt since 1960 with greater warming in summer than winter.
Between 1960 and 2003, there has been an increase in the frequency of warm nights and a decrease in the frequency of cool nights.
There has been a general increase in summer temperatures averaged over the country as a result of human influence on climate, making the occurrence of warm summer temperatures more frequent and cold summer temperatures less frequent.
Climate change projections
For the A1B emissions scenario the CMIP3 ensemble, projected temperature
increases over Egypt are around 3-3.5°C with a consistently good agreement between the models over the Middle East region in general.
Egypt is projected to experience mainly decreases in precipitation, in common with the wider Mediterranean and majority of the Middle East. Decreases of over 20% are projected in the west of the country, with strong ensemble agreement. Smaller changes are projected towards the southeast.
Climate change impact projections Crop yields
Over 90% of crop production in Egypt is fed by irrigation. An important uncertainty in projections of crop yield is therefore the evolution of future water availability with climate change in Egypt.
Global- and regional-scale studies generally project yield deficits for wheat, rice and maize, three of Egypt’s major crops, with climate change. Whether crops are rain-fed or irrigated has an important bearing on the results, and the balance between detrimental ozone effects and CO2 fertilisation may determine whether losses or gains are realised under climate change
National-scale studies agree that crop yields in Egypt could decline with climate change, and that adaptation and management methods could potentially reduce the magnitude of any losses.
Egypt is currently a country of extremely low undernourishment. Global-scale studies included here generally project that Egypt could experience increasing pressures on food security as a result of climate change.
However, recent work by the AVOID programme demonstrates that adaptive
measures could be crucial towards maintaining food security in Egypt under climate change.
Water stress and drought
The majority of national-scale and global-scale studies that have considered the effects of climate change on river discharge suggest that water stress could increase with climate change in Egypt.
Recent simulations by the AVOID programme demonstrate high uncertainty in
estimating the magnitude of increased water stress under climate change for Egypt. However most projections do not show much of the population experiencing a decrease in water stress with climate change.
National-scale studies indicate that the discharge of the Nile could decline
substantially in the future and that the population presents a high vulnerability to water stress with climate change, although precise estimates remain uncertain.
Pluvial flooding and rainfall
The IPCC AR4 found consistency across GCMs that mean precipitation could
decrease with climate change for Egypt, but that wet extremes could increase.
There the magnitude and sign of future changes in flood season discharge in the Nile River remain uncertain.
Simulations by the AVOID programme found that a large majority of models show a tendency towards decreasing flood risk with climate change in the early 21st century. Later in the century a majority of the models still agree on a decrease compared to the present-day average annual flood risk, but, especially in the A1B scenario, a small number of models do show large increases in flood risk by this time.
Several studies conclude that Egypt is highly vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR).
In one study that considered the impact of a 1m SLR for 84 developing countries, Egypt was ranked the 2nd highest with respect to the coastal population affected, 3rd highest for coastal GDP affected and 5th highest for proportion of urban areas affected.
Around 15% (2.7 million people) of Egypt’s coastal population could be affected by a 10% intensification of the current 1-in-100-year storm surge combined with a 1m SLR.